One game. One winner. Tonight is the final game of the Wild Card round.
NL Wild Card Series Game 3: 
Phillies (88-74) at 
Braves (94-68). Series tied 1-1. Winner advances to face the 
Dodgers in the NLDS starting October 3, a rematch of last year's series.
Game info: Truist Park, Atlanta. First pitch 8:00 PM ET on NBC and Peacock, moved to primetime after the other three Wild Card series all ended in sweeps. Aaron Nola (7-12, 4.67 ERA) starts for Philadelphia. Atlanta goes unconventional, with Ray Kerr opening and bulk innings likely from Grant Holmes (10-6, 3.44 ERA) behind him. Holmes is 1-0 with a 3.05 ERA against Philadelphia this year, Nola is 0-1 with a 4.50 ERA in three starts against Atlanta.
What happened: Phillies forced this Game 3 with a dramatic 4-3 win in 10 innings Wednesday. Atlanta led 3-1 into the eighth before Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper homered back to back to tie it, and Alec Bohm won it with a solo shot in the 10th. Braves took Game 1, 5-3. Full box score from Game 2
BETTING LINES, LIVE TODAY
Moneyline: Phillies -110 to -118 / Braves -106 to -102, depending on the book.
Run line: Phillies -1.5 (+150 to +158) / Braves +1.5 (-192 to -185).
Total: 7.5, over -104 to +100 / under -120 to -118, depending on the book.
These numbers moved around through the day, which is normal for an elimination game with the pitching plan still unofficial on both sides into the afternoon. The heat map is the fastest way to see where every book actually sits right now rather than one snapshot.
Trends: Phillies is 76-42 this season when favored by -110 or more. Braves is 22-21 as an underdog. Nine of the 15 meetings between these two teams this season went over 8 runs. Devig any of these numbers before you bet them, and implied probability turns a price like PHI -110 into the plain win rate it actually demands.
PROP LINES TO WATCH TODAY
Bryce Harper, over 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs (+100)
Harper is 2-for-8 with a home run against Holmes lifetime, and he just hit the game-tying homer in Game 2. He has been locked in since a fielding mistake nearly ended the season.
Ronald Acuña Jr., anytime home run / over 0.5 HRs (+542)
Longshot value. Acuña is .354 with 4 home runs in 65 at-bats against Nola, and .254 with 5 homers in 59 at-bats against Zack Wheeler. He posted a .950 OPS in September.
Aaron Nola, under 11.5 pitcher outs (+100)
The best value prop on the board. Philadelphia has Zack Wheeler and Jesús Luzardo available on short rest behind him, and it is an elimination game, meaning a quick hook if Nola runs into trouble. He threw just one inning in his last regular-season outing and only two innings in his last postseason start.
Other props to watch: Kyle Schwarber to homer, Matt Olson 1.5-plus total bases, and a Harper-Schwarber same-game parlay. Every prop on this game and BetScore are live now.
PLAYERS TO WATCH
Phillies
Bryce Harper: finished the regular season at .269/.380/.485 with 93 runs, the team's OBP leader, and particularly dangerous against right-handed pitching.
Kyle Schwarber: 135 hits, a .503 slugging percentage and 66 extra-base hits on the year.
Bryson Stott: 137 hits, .256/.334/.401 on the season, but hitting .421 with four doubles over his last five games and .333 with a .929 OPS over his last ten.
Alec Bohm: .249 average, 88 RBI, and the Game 2 walk-off hero.
Braves
Ronald Acuña Jr.: a monster September, and the Braves need that version of him again tonight.
Matt Olson: led the team with 157 hits, a .502 slugging percentage, 25 home runs against right-handed pitching and a .255 isolated power.
Drake Baldwin: the team's OBP leader at .358, an .853 OPS in the second half, crushing right-handed pitching, and likely hitting first or second tonight.
Michael Harris II: .294 average, .491 slugging, and a .299 average with a .509 slugging mark against right-handed pitching this year.
DFS SHOWDOWN, TONIGHT'S SLATE
DraftKings Showdown and FanDuel Single Game contests are both live for Phillies at Braves.
Experts are fading pitchers tonight. In a win-or-go-home game, both starters carry the shortest possible leash, first sign of trouble and Philadelphia turns to Wheeler or Luzardo while Atlanta has multiple arms ready. Build bats-heavy.
Top captain options: Harper and Schwarber have the better matchup against a right-hander in Holmes. On the Atlanta side, Olson and Acuña against Nola.
Value plays to build around: Alec Bohm, Austin Riley, Mike Yastrzemski, Justin Crawford, Ha-Seong Kim.
DFS Edge and the slip builder are built for exactly this single-game format, and the hit-rate board shows how often each of these names has actually cleared a number like this recently, not just their season average.
FANTASYDAILIES PREDICTION
Phillies 5, Braves 4. Over 7.5 is the play.
Our call on this game is up, graded openly on the public ledger the moment it is final. The calibration page shows whether that confidence has meant anything across the whole Wild Card round.
Import your team, let the Roster Doctor grade what you're carrying into the winner-take-all round, and check Start or Sit or the start/sit board before locking anything tonight. The home run leaderboard and the odds converter round out the prep.
21+. 1-800-GAMBLER.
