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🏈 NFL
Baker Mayfield

Baker Mayfield Stats, Zones, Props & DFS

#6 · QB · 6' 1" · 215 lbs · age 31 · Oklahoma · 9 yr vet
Tampa Bay Buccaneers checking status… ⚖️ Compare
✦AI BriefLive read on Baker MayfieldRead it ▾Baker Mayfield has gone over his number in 4 of his last 12 settled props on this board.8 notes · the numbers, the matchup and the wire

Baker Mayfield of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (#6 · QB · 6' 1" · 215 lbs) has a page here because every man on a roster does: his game log, the props the books post on him, how often he has beaten those numbers, and our own projection when there is a line to project against.

Baker Mayfield has gone over his number in 4 of his last 12 settled props on this board.

Tonight's spot grades 52 out of 100 — even spot — from his own line, the side he faces, the park and the travel.

We project 187.13 pass yds, moved from a base of 196.77 by vs CAR pass D #18 (+1.2%), on the road (-2%), grass, on the road at CAR.

We project 1.15 pass tds, moved from a base of 1.21 by vs CAR pass D #18 (+1.2%), on the road (-2%), grass, on the road at CAR.

We project 25.9 rush yds, moved from a base of 25.48 by vs CAR run D #27 (+8.1%), on the road (-2%), grass, on the road at CAR.

We project 0.12 rush tds, moved from a base of 0.11 by vs CAR run D #27 (+8.1%), on the road (-2%), grass, on the road at CAR.

Everything on this page is graded after the final. Every projection is written down before the game and marked after it, and the running record lives on our results page.

The full board for his league is here. Headlines are summarised with their source; the full stories stay with the outlets that wrote them.

Finding the next game…
HIS WIRE
🔥 Buccaneers vs. Panthers: Baker Mayfield expected back as three Bucs ruled out
YAHOO · 18h
📰 THE WIRE · HIS LATEST NEWS
🔥Buccaneers vs. Panthers: Baker Mayfield expected back as three Bucs ruled out
CARTByahoo · 18h ago
🚑NFL Week 7 injury report: Baker Mayfield and Lamar Jackson questionable, but both could return on Sunday
cbs · 23h ago
🚑‘He Shouldn’t Be Playing,’ ‘It Always Goes Horribly Wrong’ -- NFL Fans Push Back on Buccaneers’ Decision To Start Baker Mayfield Despite Injury
TBgnews · 1d ago
🚑Baker Mayfield set to start for Bucs' Week 7 game vs. Panthers; WR Emeka Egbuka ruled out with concussion
CARyahoo · 1d ago
📈Baker Mayfield set to return for Buccaneers after three-game absence, will wear custom glove
TBcbs · 1d ago
🚑Baker Mayfield "ready to go," Emeka Egbuka is doubtful to play for Bucs
pft · 1d ago

This is the live market page for Baker Mayfield of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers — every posted player prop with the house price on every line, tonight's best bet, live DraftKings salary and value, a market-graded start/sit verdict, price heat, and the latest news. Updated throughout the day. All math vig-included.

📐 Baker Mayfield — TONIGHT’S PROJECTION · AT CAR
52
Matchup Grade · Even spotHow good tonight’s spot is for him, out of 100 — the defense he faces, the game the number expects, the surface, the rest and the weather.
Pass Yds187.13from 196.77 · 12 games
vs CAR pass D #18 +1.2%on the road -2%grass7 days restclear at kickoffimplied 20.8 pts (house engine, nfl-v3) -4%the machine · 2 graded -0.1%his over rate L10 100% at 149.5 (2 graded)
Pass Tds1.15from 1.21 · 12 games
vs CAR pass D #18 +1.2%on the road -2%grass7 days restclear at kickoffimplied 20.8 pts (house engine, nfl-v3) -4%the machine · 2 graded -0.1%his over rate L10 50% at 1.5 (2 graded)
Rush Yds25.9from 25.48 · 12 games
vs CAR run D #27 +8.1%on the road -2%grass7 days restclear at kickoffimplied 20.8 pts (house engine, nfl-v3) -4%the machine · 2 graded -0.1%his over rate L10 50% at 14.5 (2 graded)
Rush Tds0.12from 0.11 · 12 games
vs CAR run D #27 +8.1%on the road -2%grass7 days restclear at kickoffimplied 20.8 pts (house engine, nfl-v3) -4%the machine · 2 graded -0.1%
The number is his last ten moved by the matchup — the factors above are why. Every prop on tonight’s board with the consensus price and the edge: The Projection Board →
📊 Baker Mayfield · SPLITS · HIT RATE BY WINDOW
Market · overL5L10L20Season
Passing Yards 2 100%100%100%100%
Passing Touchdowns 2 50%50%50%50% 🔒 Velvet · every market
Rushing Yards 2 50%50%50%50% 🔒 Velvet · every market
Last Touchdown Scorer 2 0%0%0%0% 🔒 Velvet · every market
To Score 2 Plus Touchdowns 2 0%0%0%0% 🔒 Velvet · every market
To Score 3 Plus Touchdowns 2 0%0%0%0% 🔒 Velvet · every market
Over rate on our own graded board, newest window first. Every player, every window, on the Splits board.

🎯 Tonight, and every market on him

Reading the board…
📊 Baker Mayfield — RECENT GRADED PROPS · 4/12 overs (33%)
to_score_3_plus_touchdowns · line 2.5
2026-09-27
UNDER
final: 0
to_score_2_plus_touchdowns · line 1.5
2026-09-27
UNDER
final: 0
last_touchdown_scorer · line 0.5
2026-09-27
UNDER
final: 0
rushing_yards · line 14.5
2026-09-27
UNDER
final: 6
passing_touchdowns · line 0.5
2026-09-27
OVER
final: 1
passing_yards · line 124.5
2026-09-27
OVER
final: 217
to_score_3_plus_touchdowns · line 2.5
2026-09-20
UNDER
final: 0
to_score_2_plus_touchdowns · line 1.5
2026-09-20
UNDER
final: 0
last_touchdown_scorer · line 0.5
2026-09-20
UNDER
final: 0
rushing_yards · line 14.5
2026-09-20
OVER
final: 29
passing_touchdowns · line 2.5
2026-09-20
UNDER
final: 1
passing_yards · line 174.5
2026-09-20
OVER
final: 182
Graded off our own board · see the full ledger →
📚 Latest reads · NFLAll articles →
NFL Week 7 Sunday Early Games Preview: Steelers-Saints in Paris, Lamar Jackson, Breece Hall, Baker Mayfield, Injuries, DFS, Parlays and Teasers
Eight games before 4 p.m. ET, starting with breakfast football from the Stade de France. Three quarterbacks are question…
NFL Week 7 Waiver Wire: Injury Replacements, Fantasy Football Sleepers and DFS Value Plays
Jalen Hurts is out for the season, Davante Adams is out for weeks, Terry McLaurin is done for the year, and four teams a…
NFL Week 6 Inactives, Game-Time Decisions and Fantasy Waiver Replacements:
Three star absences, a changed starter in Tampa Bay and a Bears quarterback who is still questionable. Here is who steps…
NFL Week 6 Sunday Early Games: Quarterback Changes, Injuries, Props, DFS Targets and Parlay Research
The Eagles are without Jalen Hurts, the Buccaneers are without Baker Mayfield and Lamar Jackson is out again. Sunday's e…
💬 From the forum · NFLJoin the room →
Every NFL call for Week 7 lives in one place
0 replies · Oct 24
One-thread NFL recap: what was Sunday's biggest surprise?
0 replies · Oct 12
Every NFL referee since 2015 with this week's crews
0 replies · Sep 6

🏆 DFS

Pulling live DK salary…

⚖️ Start / Sit

Grading the market…

🌱 Turf vs Grass, by what he does

PASSINGGAttComp%Yds/GTDINT
GRASS35125861%247.1640
TURF2069261%229.3380
RUSHINGGCarYds/GYPCTD
GRASS358816.56.61
TURF206523.57.25
-7% passing yards/game on turf vs grass
+43% rushing yards/game on turf vs grass
Every play bucketed by surface · search any player →

🛠️ Run him through the machines

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Baker Mayfield — 2026 Zone Breakdown

Passing zones

Baker Mayfield threw 109 passes in 2026, completing 56% for 615 yards, 2 touchdowns and 2 interceptions.

ZoneAttCompComp %YardsTD
Deep left8225%370
Deep middle6233.3%891
Deep right6116.7%240
Short left322784.4%1781
Short middle13861.5%1170
Short right312167.7%1700

Run gaps

Baker Mayfield carried 10 times for 66 yards (6.6 per carry) and 1 touchdowns, with a 80% success rate.

GapCarriesYardsAvgTD
Left end21260
Up the middle5316.21
Right end3237.670

Snap counts

Baker Mayfield played 187 offensive snaps across 3 games in 2026 — 62.3 per game, 98% of his team's offensive snaps.

From play-by-play and snap counts, 2026 season. A player who has changed teams since is charted in his previous offense.