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🏈 NFL
Patrick Mahomes

Patrick Mahomes Stats, Zones, Props & DFS

#15 · QB · 6' 2" · 225 lbs · age 31 · Texas Tech · 10 yr vet
Kansas City Chiefs checking status… ⚖️ Compare
🎯 Line Checker 🏆 NFL Leaders 🎯 This Week's Matchups 💰 Player Props
✦AI BriefLive read on Patrick MahomesRead it ▾Patrick Mahomes has gone over his number in 9 of his last 24 settled props on this board.8 notes · the numbers, the matchup and the wire

Patrick Mahomes of the Kansas City Chiefs (#15 · QB · 6' 2" · 225 lbs) has a page here because every man on a roster does: his game log, the props the books post on him, how often he has beaten those numbers, and our own projection when there is a line to project against.

Patrick Mahomes has gone over his number in 9 of his last 24 settled props on this board.

Tonight's spot grades 28 out of 100 — bad spot — from his own line, the side he faces, the park and the travel.

We project 201.38 pass yds, moved from a base of 239.19 by vs SEA pass D #1 (-12%), on the road (-2%), turf, on the road at SEA.

We project 1.16 pass tds, moved from a base of 1.38 by vs SEA pass D #1 (-12%), on the road (-2%), turf, on the road at SEA.

We project 23.66 rush yds, moved from a base of 26.04 by vs SEA run D #10 (-5%), on the road (-2%), turf, on the road at SEA.

We project 0.13 rush tds, moved from a base of 0.14 by vs SEA run D #10 (-5%), on the road (-2%), turf, on the road at SEA.

Everything on this page is graded after the final. Every projection is written down before the game and marked after it, and the running record lives on our results page.

The full board for his league is here. Headlines are summarised with their source; the full stories stay with the outlets that wrote them.

Finding the next game…
HIS WIRE
🔥 2026 NFL Comeback Player of Year Odds: Patrick Mahomes Favored; Nabers Rising
GNEWS · 21h
📰 THE WIRE · HIS LATEST NEWS
🔥2026 NFL Comeback Player of Year Odds: Patrick Mahomes Favored; Nabers Rising
gnews · 21h ago
🔥Seahawks vs. Chiefs Week 7 game preview: How can Seattle turn its season around?
KCSEAyahoo · 1d ago
🔥Fantasy Football Week 7 Fades & Busts: Time to accept the new reality with Patrick Mahomes
yahoo · 1d ago

This is the live market page for Patrick Mahomes of the Kansas City Chiefs — every posted player prop with the house price on every line, tonight's best bet, live DraftKings salary and value, a market-graded start/sit verdict, price heat, and the latest news. Updated throughout the day. All math vig-included.

📐 Patrick Mahomes — TONIGHT’S PROJECTION · AT SEA
28
Matchup Grade · Bad spotHow good tonight’s spot is for him, out of 100 — the defense he faces, the game the number expects, the surface, the rest and the weather.
Pass Yds201.38from 239.19 · 5 games
vs SEA pass D #1 -12%on the road -2%turf7 days restclear at kickoffimplied 21.1 pts (house engine, nfl-v3) -3.1%the machine · 4 graded +0.8%his over rate L10 100% at 137 (4 graded)
Pass Tds1.16from 1.38 · 5 games
vs SEA pass D #1 -12%on the road -2%turf7 days restclear at kickoffimplied 21.1 pts (house engine, nfl-v3) -3.1%the machine · 4 graded +0.8%his over rate L10 75% at 0.5 (4 graded)
Rush Yds23.66from 26.04 · 5 games
vs SEA run D #10 -5%on the road -2%turf7 days restclear at kickoffimplied 21.1 pts (house engine, nfl-v3) -3.1%the machine · 4 graded +0.8%his over rate L10 50% at 14.5 (4 graded)
Rush Tds0.13from 0.14 · 5 games
vs SEA run D #10 -5%on the road -2%turf7 days restclear at kickoffimplied 21.1 pts (house engine, nfl-v3) -3.1%the machine · 4 graded +0.8%
The number is his last ten moved by the matchup — the factors above are why. Every prop on tonight’s board with the consensus price and the edge: The Projection Board →
📊 Patrick Mahomes · SPLITS · HIT RATE BY WINDOW
Market · overL5L10L20Season
Passing Yards 4 100%100%100%100%
Passing Touchdowns 4 75%75%75%75% 🔒 Velvet · every market
Rushing Yards 4 50%50%50%50% 🔒 Velvet · every market
Last Touchdown Scorer 4 0%0%0%0% 🔒 Velvet · every market
To Score 2 Plus Touchdowns 4 0%0%0%0% 🔒 Velvet · every market
To Score 3 Plus Touchdowns 4 0%0%0%0% 🔒 Velvet · every market
Over rate on our own graded board, newest window first. Every player, every window, on the Splits board.

🎯 Tonight, and every market on him

Reading the board…
📊 Patrick Mahomes — RECENT GRADED PROPS · 9/24 overs (38%)
to_score_3_plus_touchdowns · line 2.5
2026-10-18
UNDER
final: 0
to_score_2_plus_touchdowns · line 1.5
2026-10-18
UNDER
final: 0
last_touchdown_scorer · line 0.5
2026-10-18
UNDER
final: 0
rushing_yards · line 14.5
2026-10-18
OVER
final: 16
passing_touchdowns · line 0.5
2026-10-18
UNDER
final: 0
passing_yards · line 149.5
2026-10-18
OVER
final: 272
to_score_3_plus_touchdowns · line 2.5
2026-10-04
UNDER
final: 0
to_score_2_plus_touchdowns · line 1.5
2026-10-04
UNDER
final: 0
last_touchdown_scorer · line 0.5
2026-10-04
UNDER
final: 0
rushing_yards · line 14.5
2026-10-04
UNDER
final: 0
passing_touchdowns · line 0.5
2026-10-04
OVER
final: 2
passing_yards · line 149.5
2026-10-04
OVER
final: 225
Graded off our own board · see the full ledger →
🏈 Patrick Mahomes — 2026 GAME LOG · 5 GAMES · QB
Every regular-season week. Green is above his season median, red below — the same line the hit board rates him against until the books post a number.
WkPass ydsPass TDRush ydsRush TD
W11842231
W23823170
W3246210
W4225200
W62720160
Total13099571
Per game261.81.811.40.2
Median2462160
🔬 NEXT UP · WEEK 7 @ SEA · Sun Oct 25 · 8:20 PM ET
What SEA gave up to QBs in 2026, rank of 32 — green is a soft spot, red is a wall.
#1156.83pass yds/g to QBs
#161.33pass TD/g to QBs
#2219.67rush yds/g to QBs
#92.67sacks/g
The full matchup room → 🎯 Our call on this game → 🎯 How often does he cover a line? →
Rolls forward every Tuesday once the 2026 season is under way.
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🏆 DFS

Pulling live DK salary…

⚖️ Start / Sit

Grading the market…

🌱 Turf vs Grass, by what he does

PASSINGGAttComp%Yds/GTDINT
GRASS43164463%256.3690
TURF1139661%241.3210
RUSHINGGCarYds/GYPCTD
GRASS4315026.67.69
TURF112217.18.50
-6% passing yards/game on turf vs grass
-36% rushing yards/game on turf vs grass
Every play bucketed by surface · search any player →

🛠️ Run him through the machines

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Patrick Mahomes — 2026 Zone Breakdown

Passing zones

Patrick Mahomes threw 165 passes in 2026, completing 63.6% for 1309 yards, 9 touchdowns and 3 interceptions.

ZoneAttCompComp %YardsTD
Deep left4375%1210
Deep middle10440%1280
Deep right10550%1430
Short left402665%2781
Short middle291965.5%2222
Short right654873.8%4176

Run gaps

Patrick Mahomes carried 11 times for 65 yards (5.91 per carry) and 1 touchdowns, with a 54.5% success rate.

GapCarriesYardsAvgTD
Left end32480
Up the middle5285.61
Right end3134.330

Snap counts

Patrick Mahomes played 322 offensive snaps across 5 games in 2026 — 64.4 per game, 100% of his team's offensive snaps.

From play-by-play and snap counts, 2026 season. A player who has changed teams since is charted in his previous offense.